Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost lengthy war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after President Trump said he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs White House without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

The president loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in August produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The next day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Ronald Stein
Ronald Stein

Maya is a certified automotive specialist with over a decade of experience in clutch systems and vehicle diagnostics.