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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also see the Aussie side host more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Team Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test team being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the team management assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a far greater shift with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the side. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what new injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of getting injured early in series and a history of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the series may witness the primary four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the visiting team. You can sense that change a-coming, rolling round the corner, and the English team ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.