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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.