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England's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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